Sorry for the lack of posting recently. Besides the fact that I just haven’t had anything to write about, the holidays have been busy as usual. I still don’t have anything really meaningful to write about so for the sake of posting something I’m just going to throw a few things out there…

No Longer Detroit’s Bitch

There’s no question that the Red Wings are a better team than the Blues. I wouldn’t think to suggest otherwise (even if I do think the Wings will ultimately choke in the playoffs). The good news, however, is that their total domination of the Blues on a regular basis is officially over. After splitting the series last year, the Blues are 3-2 against Detroit through five games this year. Just how bad was it before? In the three seasons prior to 2006-07, the Blues and Wings played 19 times. The Wings won 16 of those. Oh, how I long for the day when we own them.

Playoff Bound?

I doubt I’m the only one less confident in our playoff chances than just a few weeks ago. The Blues finished December on a strong note beating Detroit on the road, but that hardly makes up for a 5-6-3 month. As of this morning, the Blues are sitting 9th in the conference one point behind Anaheim for the final playoff spot. The good news is that they’ve played fewer games than every team ahead of them and sit 7th in the ‘real standings’ (points earned per game played) and are on pace for 93 points. I think it goes without saying that we need to find ourselves on a hot streak real soon here so they’re in a good position going into that 9 game road trip in March.

Say What?

A friend of mine who works for ESPN asked me what I thought of their fantasy hockey blog. So I go check it out and come across a couple interesting tidbits about the Blues.

[Erik Johnson] has failed to reach the high expectations set out for him before the season.

Johnson has 13 points in only 25 games this year. To put that into perspective, over 82 games that would put him at 43 points. That’s not too shabby for a rookie defenseman in the NHL.

Blues goalie Manny Legace continues to fly under the radar with an impressive year to date. Overall he has a 2.20 GAA and .918 save percentage, but of late those numbers have been even better. If you take away the stats from one poor outing against Detroit, he has a 1.72 GAA in December. Granted, he has been losing some starts to Hannu Toivonen, but with games like these (a 31-save shutout) he’s not in danger of losing his job.

I love the love for Manny, but when exactly has Toivonen been taking starts away from Manny? Needless to say, my report back regarding the quality of the blog will not be a quality one.

When John Davidson was quickly ushered in two summers ago to take over the franchise as the free agent market was simultaneously opening, one of his first moves was giving Martin Rucinsky a two year, 4.75 million dollar contract. Davidson spent the previous year in the Rangers’ broadcast booth. He had a front row seat as Rucinsky had arguably his best season in his career. Lining up next to Jaromir Jagr, he scored 55 points in only 52 games.

While I seriously doubt that Davidson and Larry Pleau expected a point-per-game pace when he arrived in St. Louis for his second stint with the Blues, there’s little doubt that they expected more production than they’ve gotten from the Czech winger. Through Sunday’s game in Calgary, Rucinsky has only 10 points.

Bryce Salvador has nine points.

As the Blues enter a stretch where they’ll play Detroit three times in seven games, it would probably be in Rucinsky’s best interest to step up his game.

The Doug Weight trade proves that this organization isn’t unwilling to move on when a player isn’t living up to expectations. And unlike Weight, Rucinsky doesn’t bring leadership intangibles to the table. He’d be easier to replace… perhaps even with someone in Peoria.

Left winger Charles Linglet has put together a nice season for the Rivermen with 24 points in 25 games. I wouldn’t mind seeing what kind of damage Linglet can do in the NHL.

And if all else fails, maybe Davidson can convince his old bosses to take Rucinsky off our hands. Petr Prucha’s having an awful season and could use a change of scenery. Okay, maybe that’s wishful thinking.

If you haven’t already heard, the Blues traded Doug Weight along with a prospect and a pick to the Ducks for center Andy McDonald.

Like most Blues fans, I’m more than happy with the deal. Michal Birner has not lived up to expectations in his professional career thus far and would likely be a victim of numbers in an organization stacked with young forwards. McDonald hasn’t produced as well this year without Teemu Selanne, but he still has outperformed Weight and at 30 years old is six and half years younger.

Thanks to a stipulations in the league’s CBA, this trade really is too good to be true. The Ducks want to get Scott Neidermayer back in their lineup, but bringing him back would put their salary cap for NEXT season over the threshold. That put the Ducks in a situation where they had to trim next season’s payroll. Lucky for us, Weight is an unrestricted free agent after this season. So even though Weight’s cap hit is greater this year it helps the Ducks overall cap situation.

Great job by John Davidson and Larry Pleau for taking advantage of the Ducks’ situation.

Even though Weight has underperformed and has been a general source of frustration during this and his previous tenure with the Blues, it’s always disappointing to lose one of your key players. Over the last couple weeks we’ve seen glimpses of what I refer to as ‘Oiler Dougie’. He’s the Doug Weight that comes out and dominates shifts. He handles the puck without hesitation and even shoots the puck. Unfortunately, for both him and Blues fans, that version of Doug Weight rarely made appearances at 14th and Clark.

Dougie… Even though you never lived up to expectations here in St. Louis, we wish you luck with your old buddy Prongs. Just not when you’re playing the Blues.

That said, this is a great pick up for the Note. McDonald’s last two season point totals were 85 and 78 points. This far into the season, it’s unlikely he match either of those totals this season, but chances are he’ll still perform better than Weight would have with the Blues. As the old saying goes… maybe he just needs a change of scenery. That scenery could very well end up being linemates named Brad Boyes and Paul Kariya, who he has some history with from Kariya’s Anaheim days.

Dear Andy Murray,

When you first signed on to be the head coach of a then pathetic St. Louis Blues team, you preached about ownership. You told players that they were owners of companies, that company being themselves. There’s one specific player that lecture really seemed to get through to: Eric Brewer.

Not long after you took over, he started playing like scouts had predicted he would a decade earlier. Mistakes suddenly disappeared from his game and he became a force in the defensive zone. Unfortunately, that version of Eric Brewer didn’t stick around long and I, for one, don’t think it’s a coincidence that his play seemed to go downhill shortly after selling his ‘company’ last spring, to the tune of 17 million big ones.

Perhaps I’m stating the obvious here, but from where I’m sitting it sure looks like Brewer has lost his motivation to play. His company is secure for the next three plus seasons. So, maybe it’s time to give Brewer the same treatment you’ve given some of his teammates this year? Maybe it’s time for him to watch a few games from the press box?

Last night’s turnover that cost the Blues a goal is just the latest example that Brewer’s head isn’t all there. On a nightly basis he coughs up the puck in the worst situations leading to great scoring chances for the opposition. I’m as happy as the next person that the Blues are getting their best goaltending since Curtis Joseph donned a Bluenote, but I’d prefer if getting great goaltending wasn’t a requirement for this team to win every single game.

I’m not sure if he just isn’t the brightest guy in the world or if he’s just making lazy plays, but I fail to see how either is acceptable when you hold other players to a higher standard.

Please replace Brewer in the lineup with Erik Johnson on Friday night in Edmonton.

Sincerely,

Blues Fan

P.S. The Blues are 5-0 when Brewer is out of the line-up.

The biggest question about this team is where the secondary scoring is going to come from. We know Paul Kariya, Brad Boyes and Keith Tkachuk are going to do their thing. To keep winning games, eventually they’re going to need consistent scoring from somewhere else.

It was nice to see DJ King contribute offensively last night, but I don’t think anyone is delusional enough to think that’s going to happen often. But, one of the other goal scorers last night could be at least part of the solution to the problem.

After starting the season with seven pointless games, Mike Johnson now has four points in his last five games. He’s a guy with a history of contributing offensively in Phoenix and to a lesser extent in Montreal last season.

If nothing else, his recent resurgence allows the Blues to be a little more patient in any trade talks to acquire more scoring. If Lee Stempniak doesn’t disappear from the score sheet again and Mike Johnson can get a point every other game or so, this team might be okay.

Not that adding another scorer would be a bad thing.

Maybe Kariya could put in a phone call in to his buddy Teemu?

Apparently pretty bad. Jeremy Rutherford threw out this little nugget in his chat today on STLToday.com:

I was told by a non-Blues source that Jackman was the roster player in a package to trade up to No. 1 overall in the draft. The Blues would have sent Jackman, No. 24 and No. 26 to Chicago for No. 1 overall, and they would have taken Pat Kane. The trade was not accepted by the Blackhawks.

Frankly, I’m a little surprised that the Blackhawks didn’t take the offer. At the time Kane was an unknown, who lacked the ideal size that most think you need to be an elite player in the NHL. Obviously they made the right call. Too bad becuase his 25 points would do wonders for the Blues’ scoring woes right now.

Rutherford also had some interesting comments regarding potential future trades.

I think the Blues have to be serious about exchanging a d-man for a forward. J.D. is in Pebble Beach, Calif., today and Friday for the Board of Governor’s meeting. He told me yesterday there will be some talks and they are listening. Here’s the thing: the Blues always talk about managing their assets properly. Yes, it makes sense to have depth on the blue-line. But it does not make sense to have eight healthy d-men here (and two in Peoria who are capable: Polak/Woywikta)WHILE YOU NEED SCORING HELP.

I think the Blues have probably tried to move Christian Backman, especially with the emergence of Steve Wagner. But there are probably no takers with Backman’s $3.4 million looming next season.

I don’t think there’s a way they can keep both Bryce Salvador and Barret Jackman next season, so maybe you see what you can get for ONE of them now. Both are unrestricted free agents after the year.

The Blues can’t talk extensions with those guys until after January 1.

Later in chat he added…

I think it comes down to Jackman or Salvador. As I wrote earlier, both are unrestricted after this season and both will be up for raises. Jackman is working on a one-year, $2.2 million deal. Salvador is making $1.5 in the final year of a three-year deal.

For the record, I’m not on board with trading Jackman. And I would have through the mere suggestion was crazy talk if I hadn’t just read that they’ve already offered him up to another team. I don’t love the idea of trading Salvador either, simply because he seems to bring the best out of Eric Brewer. Backman is clearly the best option to move, but you have to give to get and teams probably aren’t going to be throwing around the 60+ point player that the Blues really need for Christian Backman.

As for Maxim Afinogenov…

The Blues will not trade for Afinogenov. He makes $3.3 million and has suffered this season without Daniel Briere and Chris Drury.

I talked with Eklund earlier today about this very same topic and he’s adamant that it’s a possibility still. I’ve heard from more than one person that John Davidson likes Afinogenov. I’m not sure he’s the right fit for this team though, and I don’t think that Buffalo would take on Jay McKee’s salary for the next two years.

Brad Boyes’ game winning goal over the Buffalo Sabres last night marked the 14th time this season he’s found the back of the net. The Blues have only played 22 games. Don’t get the calculator out, I’ll tell you. He’s on pace for 52 goals.

At what point do we stop expecting him to slow down?

Ever since he started the season with four goals in four games we’ve been waiting for his production to drop. When he went five games without a goal early this month, we thought it happened. Boyes had other plans, and now has five goals in the last seven games.

Sure, it’s probably not reasonable to expect Boyes to be the first Blue to break the 50 goal more since #16 did it in the early 90’s, but why shouldn’t we expect him to reach the 40 goal mark? As long as coach Andy Murray is putting him on the ice with Paul Kariya, he’s going to keep scoring.

Yesterday, James Mirtle posted some projected numbers that revealed something that I hadn’t realized. The Blues are actually on pace to score seven FEWER goals (207) than they did last season (214). The good news is that they’re also on pace to allow 74 fewer goals than last season.

Prior to the season a lot of people claimed that Paul Kariya was simply a replacement for Bill Guerin’s lost production. I didn’t necessarily disagree with that, but I felt that the improvements from young players like David Backes and Lee Stempniak would be the real gain on offense. Unfortunately those two have three combined goals… which is exactly half the number of goals Jamal Mayers has on the season.

This is why there’s a case to be made for Manny Legace being in the running for the Hart Trophy.

Sunday’s shutout of the Calgary Flames marked the 21st game of the season, meaning we’re as close as we can mathematically be to the quarter point of the season. The Blues have fared well lately winning six of their last seven games (friggin’ Red Wings), but that’s not really where I’m going with this blog.

We’re going to look at it on a player by player basis. More specifically, what I’ve put together are approval ratings for each regular Blues player with the assistance of some other Blues fans, most of which are regulars on LetsGoBlues.com. The rules were pretty simple, but also purposely vague. Fans were asked to submit a simple ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ on whether or not they approve of how players have played so far this season. The results are nothing earth shattering, but an interesting look into how players are perceived by their fans.

Of the 24 players, eight got a 100% approval rating, including all three rookies. Nobody received 0%, but Martin Rucinsky and Mike Johnson each came close with 7.1%. Not surprisingly, Eric Brewer came up at the bottom of the list for the defensemen.

Here’s the player by player breakdown. How I voted is listed below their name.

David Backes – 60%
No - A number of the voters decided to abstain on Backes given his injury. I looked at his situation a little differently and only measured him based on the games he played. And, unfortunately, four points in 12 games isn’t enough. He needs to step his game up when he gets healthy.

Brad Boyes – 100%
Yes – Had one of the responders marked Boyes, who’s in the top 10 in the league in goals, as a ‘No’, I might have voided their entire ballot.

Dan Hinote – 57.1%
No – Aside from one game against Colorado, Hinote has just been ‘meh’ all season. It’s not that I expect goals or even assists out of the guy, but he needs to be better at the other aspects of the game.

Mike Johnson – 7.1%
No – Came in 50% behind Dan Hinote. Ouch. The good news for him is that he’s getting a chance to line up with Keith Tkachuk and David Perron, so if he has anything left in the tank from his days in Phoenix, now’s the time to bring it out.

Ryan Johnson – 100%
Yes – You can’t help but love what Ryan Johnson brings to the table each and every night.

Paul Kariya – 100%
Yes – Boy, the Blues sure did overpay for this guy.

DJ King – 42.9%
No – I’m anti-enforcer in general, but the real reason I went thumbs down here is because he’s not even doing what he’s supposed to be doing very well. And the Calgary game doesn’t change that.

Jamal Mayers – 100%
Yes – I was pleasantly surprised to see Mayers get the respect he deserved from the voters. Maybe people have finally accepted that he’s not a goal scorer?

Jay McClement – 42.9%
Yes – Understandably, people aren’t happy with his three points in 21 games. Neither am I. I just think he’s good enough in other aspects of the game to live with. That said, I might not feel the same way when we do this again at the halfway point.

David Perron – 100%
Yes – Perron’s production has slowed here a bit lately, but it’s hard to knock a guy who at 19 years old is 5th on the team in goals.

Keith Tkachuk – 85.7%
Yes – I couldn’t say for sure, but I suspect that the No’s he received are solely due to the fact he has only 6 goals on the season. Sure, I’d like to see that a little higher but the guy is playing excellent defense and is on pace for 66 points, which is right about where we should have expected him to be.

Martin Rucinsky – 7.1%
No – As one of the voters commented in his response to me, Rucinsky seems to be fitting into his new role better. Problem is, he’s good enough to fit into a scoring roll and he’s just not getting the job done.

Lee Stempniak – 21.4
No – This was one of the harder decisions to make. On one level, Stempniak’s one goal isn’t a result of a lack of effort or poor play. He’s just had some bad luck. Unfortunately at the end of the night all that matters is the scoreboard, so I (and most others for that matter) feel he needs to step it up a few notches.

Doug Weight – 14.3%
No – As bad as Rucinsky has been this year, he has 50% more points than Doug Weight. And Rucinsky is better defensively.

Christian Backman – 42.9
Yes – I thought this was one of the more surprising approval ratings. People seem to nitpick a lot about his game, but the reality is that he’s a solid positional defenseman… he’s just not living up to the offensive defenseman expectations that scouts bestowed on him.

Eric Brewer – 21.4%
No – You know what I really missed when he was out of the Vancouver game? I missed that one awful turnover in our own zone that we’ve come accustom to from Brewer. It’s, like, tradition, or something.

Barrett Jackman – 71.4%
Yes – Jackman is -8 on the season. In the six games he was paired with Brewer, he was -5. Need I say more?

Erik Johnson – 100%
Yes – Probably the most underrated player on this team. Because he was the #1 pick, our expectations coming into the season were so high that it’s easy to overlook how great of a defenseman he is for a 19 year old playing in the NHL.

Jay McKee – 85.7%
Yes – Seems like the consensus is that he isn’t the one that should have sat out for a few games.

Bryce Salvador – 85.7%
Yes – Frankly, I don’t see how he’s not at 100%.

Steve Wagner – 100%
Yes – I admit that I wasn’t on board with him starting the season with the Blues over Roman Polak. Boy was I wrong about that.

Matt Walker – 45.5%
Yes – Another underappreciated member of your St. Louis Blues. Nobody will ever confuse Matt Walker with a Norris Trophy winner, but the guy is perfect for the role he is in.

Manny Legace – 100%
Yes – As one of the voters commented next to his vote of approval: “MVP Candidate”. He’s not too far off.

Hannu Toivonen – 92.9%
Yes – Wish I could tell you why someone finds his play this season disprovable.

Isn’t it amazing how quick things can change? When the Blues lost their third straight game two Fridays ago the sky was falling at warp speed. The defense sucked, the offense sucked and people were starting to question Andy Murray’s coaching for the first time since arriving in St. Louis.

All it took was a four game winning streak over divisional opponents to make things all better. The Blues currently sit 7th in the Western Conference, but there’s only one team ahead of them that they cannot pass with wins in their games in hand. Here’s how the Western Conference shakes out if we look at the real standings…

	Games Played	Points	Points/Game	Projected Points
1. Red Wings	20	29	1.45	119
2. Blues	18	22	1.22	100
3. Avalanche	19	23	1.21	99
4. Wild	20	24	1.20	98
5. Sharks	21	25	1.19	98
6. Blackhawks	20	23	1.15	94
7. Canucks	19	21	1.11	91
8t. Predators	20	22	1.10	90
8t. Stars	20	22	1.10	90
8t. Blue Jackets	20	22	1.10	90
Ducks	21	23	1.09	90
Flames	20	19	0.95	78
Coyotes	18	16	0.89	73
Kings	20	17	0.85	70
Oilers	20	15	0.75	62

That’s the good news. The bad news is that despite the fact the Blues sit well in the standings, they really have played very well throughout these four games. Jeremy Rutherford wrote this prior to last night’s win over the Predators.

Here’s the shot totals for the three victories: Detroit 30, Blues 16 . . . Columbus 30, Blues 23 . . . Nashville 37, Blues 20.

Coaches don’t put a lot of stock in shots because some are very low quality. What they do count, though, are scoring chances and by the Blues’ own account, their opponents have had many more chances the past three games.

“It’s interesting how it works,” Murray said. ”Obviously we’re getting pretty good goaltending. Our offensive guys weren’t putting the puck in the net when they had the chances before and now we’re getting some timely goals.”

I think it’s safe to say that trend continued last night. Manny Legace had to make a half dozen ridiculous saves in the first period alone, and was continuously tested throughout the night. As I’ve seen some others mention already, it’s been a long time since anyone in a Bluenote has performed this well between the pipes as Legace has throughout the Blues’ first 18 games. While that’s great and all, when you have to rely on your goaltending to win you games, eventually that’s going to catch up with you.

This team has to start playing a more consistent game on both ends of the ice. One step to accomplishing that might be to let Eric Brewer watch a game or two from the press box and think about the ridiculous turnovers he commits a number of times every single game. Great teams almost always take advantage of those types of mistakes, and the Blues are traveling to Detroit on Wednesday.

As for those Red Wings…

Detroit ended their three game losing streak on Sunday with a 5-4 win over the Blue Jackets, who have come back down to earth. I know none of us expect the Blues to win the division this season, but if there is any hope of accomplishing that, then they need to perform very well in these head-to-head matchups. The Wings have a seven point lead on the Blues and have played three more games. Winning tomorrow’s tilt would put the Blues in a situation where winning the games in hand put them ahead of Detroit.

And before anyone overreacts to my suggestion that the Blues have a shot at the division, let me say this… There’s no question that Detroit is a better team than the Blues. But that doesn’t change the fact that if the Blues keep themselves close to Detroit throughout the year and find a way to get hot at the end of the year they might just have a chance. Of course I wouldn’t put any money on that happening.